Triple Crown is on the Line

Can California Chrome make Triple Crown history? Right now, the betting odds say yes, he can. However, these have no indication of his ability, but rather the crowd sentiment. And because he won the first two legs prior to Belmont, everyone wants a piece of the action to make sure they have that winning ticket in the event that he does win and does become the first Triple Crown champion since Affirmed did it in 1978.

But what are the real odds of this happening? There are ten other horses in the field, so statistically, the chances are around 9 percent. The talent this year is actually pretty weak, though, so in reality, his chances are much higher than 9 percent. The real question becomes, is it worth betting on California Chrome based upon the odds that he will be paying out? And considering that these will probably be around 1:1, he would need to have a better than 50 percent chance of winning to make this a good idea for you.

It might be close to that number, actually. Wicked Strong is probably the top contender in the field right now, and he had an awful Kentucky Derby because of traffic problems. Belmont is a lighter field, and there’s more distance to cover, which is a good thing based upon the Derby problems. He is one to watch.

Ride on Curlin also has a good shot and was a big challenger during the Preakness. However, this race is a lot longer than that one, and that may prove to be troublesome. Still, he’s one to watch.

Of the ten challengers, these are the big two to watch, and Chrome is better than both of them. Still, that doesn’t quite equal 50 percent odds of winning. If Chrome’s numbers creep up to 3:2 or better, he is definitely worth a bet.