2015 Kentucky Derby Action

The 2015 Kentucky Derby is this weekend, and a few horses have some serious buzz surrounding them. Let’s look at the top four most hyped horses, and see if they are the real deal, or not worth putting your money on.


Dortmund has a morning line odds of 3/1. In a 20 horse field, this is quite impressive. But, take into consideration that he is the son of the 2008 Derby winner, Big Brown, and won the Santa Anita Derby with ease, and the 3/1 odds are more than justified. He has the pedigree, he has the big race experience, the only question is whether or not the extra distance of the Kentucky Derby will suit him. Because of this unknown, a bet with a 3/1 payout is probably a bit too risky. Look for 5/1 or better for Dortmund.

American Pharoah

American Pharoah is the morning line favorite at 5/2, and for good reason. The Arkansas Derby winner has done nothing but impress, and has only gotten stronger as the distances get longer. He’s on a four race winning streak, and most of them have been by a convincing amount. The only drawback is the price on him right now. 5/2 is not the greatest number, especially in a race like the Derby where anything can happen. He’s the favorite for sure, but at 5/2, it is hard to justify a bet on him. 4/1 is probably a lot more realistic because of the huge amount of talent in this field.


Materiality was sired by Afleet Alex, the 2005 Preakness and Belmont champion. He has the highest Beyer speed figure in the race with an impressive 110. He has a morning line of 12/1, but with his resume, it’s hard to believe that the odds will end up paying this much. A price of 10/1 is much more realistic, especially because of his speed down the backstretch. Because of the hype ahead of him, Materiality seems like a good addition to exotics and for hedging your other bets.


Upstart has the second highest Beyer speed figure in this race at 108. Even though Materiality has better numbers, in a longer race, this isn’t necessarily to Upstart’s disadvantage. The big issue for this horse is that Materiality beat him at the Florida Derby earlier this year. Still, this is a longer race, so Upstart is not out of the equation. He’s a good longshot in this race, but will only be worth wagering on if his post odds are at or better than his current morning line of 15/1.